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Whenever one joins an online poker forum, the first few posts he catches a glimpse of are about phenomenal losing streaks, bad beats and complaints that online poker is rigged. None of these posters can come up with anything even vaguely resembling some sort of proof, their arguments are usually exhausted with ‘bad beats like that simply wouldn’t happen in live poker’, and ‘something like that is impossible to happen’.
Most people take note that there are far more bad beats in online poker than in live games, which they present as a proof, towards online poker rooms being rigged. While I do agree with the part that there are more bad beats in online poker, I absolutely dismiss the idea that poker rooms are knowingly set up by their management to hustle players.
This does not mean that rogue insiders cannot poke their noses into delicate matters sometimes (see the recent Absolute Poker scandal) but they’re always caught because they just cannot disguise the traces of their activity. For a poker room owner it pays much better to keep things as clean as possible, and believe me, they spare no resources to make sure you get a fair game.
That brings us to why there are in fact more bad beats in online poker than in live poker. It’s obvious to everyone that there are far more hands played per hour in online poker than in any live game. This speed-difference stems from the natures of the two variants. That alone should already be enough to bring along more bad beats per hour, but to justify everything with speed alone would be lame.
The effects of more hands played per hour are further reaching and far more complex than one would realize at first glance. For a good player (one who knows how to make the best of EV+) the increased speed means an increased hourly rate. That also means he can loosen up on the EV he plays, since – even if the margin gets smaller on the bet – the increase in the hourly rate compensates for the lost value. That loosens the game up. Add to that the benefits and value brought about by the bonuses and the rakeback, and you’ll see it is almost worth to act on neutral EV these days. Most people realize this and they shape their strategy accordingly. This leads to much looser games, in which schooling becomes a real nuisance. Loose games lead to a lot of schooling, and schooling is probably the single most important factor in bringing about a bad beat.
Mind you however, even though the advantages that rakeback deals and the speed of action lend the game persist at higher limits, it’s the low and medium stakes where most people become sick with frustration due to losing to weak calls.
High stake/limit games tend to look much more like real poker games, because there’s much less schooling and play is loose as well.
Next time you wonder why there are indeed more bad beats in online poker than in live poker, compare the flops seen percentage from an online poker table with that of a similar stakes table from a live poker room. That’ll provide you an edifying clue as to what it is that’s going on.